Current
1.78%
Forecast detail
Canadian 90+ Day Delinquency Rate
Delinquency is expected to rise through mid-2027 before stabilizing.
Base forecast
2.42%
12M
Range
2.08–2.86%
Confidence
82%
Forecast path
Forecast loading…
Driver contribution
Open story →Interest burdenUpward pressure
31%Employment momentumUpward pressure
25%Savings depletionUpward pressure
22%Mortgage renewalsUpward pressure
18%Revision history
Forecast revised upward
Base case increased by 18 bps.
Confidence widened
Labour uncertainty increased the range.
Historical accuracy
Directional accuracy
84%
Mean absolute error
0.16 pp
Supporting evidence
Full evidence →| Source | Type | Quality | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada | Official data | 96 | 2026-07-31 |
| Statistics Canada | Official data | 95 | 2026-08-01 |
| Atlas model output | Model output | 83 | 2026-08-04 |