Current
18.6%
Forecast detail
Mortgage Renewal Rate
Fixed-rate mortgage renewal pressure.
Base forecast
22.5%
12M
Range
20–25%
Confidence
77%
Forecast path
Forecast loading…
Driver contribution
Open story →Interest burdenUpward pressure
31%Employment momentumUpward pressure
25%Savings depletionUpward pressure
22%Mortgage renewalsUpward pressure
18%Revision history
Forecast revised upward
Base case increased by 18 bps.
Confidence widened
Labour uncertainty increased the range.
Historical accuracy
Directional accuracy
84%
Mean absolute error
0.16 pp
Supporting evidence
Full evidence →| Source | Type | Quality | Published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada | Official data | 96 | 2026-07-31 |
| Statistics Canada | Official data | 95 | 2026-08-01 |
| Atlas model output | Model output | 83 | 2026-08-04 |