Monthly Monitor
May 7, 2026
May 7, 2026
Aerospace Supply Chain Monitor
Delinquencies rise steadily; credit stress remains contained but risks are building.
Executive Summary
The 90+ day delinquency rate increased to 1.78% in May 2026. Mortgage renewal pressures and elevated policy rates are the primary headwinds, partially offset by resilient employment and income growth.
90+ Day Delinquency
1.78%
Consumer Credit Growth
4.2%
Debt to Income
181%
Variable Rate Mortgage
6.19%
Key Insight
Delinquencies are rising in a controlled manner. Continued monitoring of mortgage renewal waves is critical.
Delinquency Rate (%)
Forecast loadingβ¦
Top Drivers
| Policy Rate | +0.42 pp | High |
| Mortgage Renewals | +0.29 pp | High |
Scenario Summary
| Bull Case | 1.45% | β0.97 pp |
| Base Case | 2.42% | β |
Key Assumptions
| Policy Rate | 2.25% | 1.75% |
| Real GDP | 1.2% | 1.4% |