Aerospace order books remain resilient despite supply constraints

Current state

Demand is strong, but engine availability and specialist labour remain production bottlenecks.

Confidence

81%

Impact

High

Outlook

12M

Strong demand, constrained delivery

What changed

Credit deterioration accelerated

Delinquencies increased across several borrower segments.

Why

Interest burden and weaker buffers

Higher payments, softer employment and savings depletion reinforced one another.

Implication

Loss and underwriting pressure

Review pricing, reserves, collections and segment limits.

Driver	Direction	Contribution	Confidence

Delivery conversion improves as selected bottlenecks ease.

Deliveries grow, but remain below unconstrained demand.

Monthly

90+ day delinquencies

Look for broadening deterioration.

Weekly

Employment signals

Monitor layoffs, hours worked and vacancies.

Now

Refresh segment stress tests

Test near-prime and variable-payment borrowers.

30 days

Review collections readiness

Align capacity with downside scenarios.

Source	Type	Quality	Published