Confidence
79%
Intelligence story
Rate-cut expectations shift toward a slower easing path
Sticky services inflation and resilient employment are changing the expected policy trajectory.
Current state
58
Revised
Sticky services inflation and resilient employment are changing the expected policy trajectory.
Impact
Medium
Outlook
12M
Gradual easing
Executive sequence
Credit deterioration accelerated
Delinquencies increased across several borrower segments.
Interest burden and weaker buffers
Higher payments, softer employment and savings depletion reinforced one another.
Loss and underwriting pressure
Review pricing, reserves, collections and segment limits.
Key drivers
| Driver | Direction | Contribution | Confidence |
|---|
Forecasts
What to watch
90+ day delinquencies
Look for broadening deterioration.
Employment signals
Monitor layoffs, hours worked and vacancies.
Recommended actions
Refresh segment stress tests
Test near-prime and variable-payment borrowers.
Review collections readiness
Align capacity with downside scenarios.
Evidence
| Source | Type | Quality | Published |
|---|