Global Growth
2.7%
12-month outlook
Domain overview
Economy
Growth, inflation, employment and policy conditions.
Canada Inflation
2.4%
headline CPI
Top stories
consumer-credit
Canadian households enter a new phase of credit stress
Delinquencies are accelerating as savings buffers weaken and refinancing costs remain elevated.
commercial-real-estate
Commercial real-estate refinancing pressure is accelerating
A concentrated maturity wall is increasing downside risk for office and secondary retail assets.
markets
Rate-cut expectations shift toward a slower easing path
Sticky services inflation and resilient employment are changing the expected policy trajectory.
aerospace
Aerospace order books remain resilient despite supply constraints
Demand is strong, but engine availability and specialist labour remain production bottlenecks.
insurance
Claims inflation is easing unevenly across P&C lines
Auto repair severity remains elevated while property materials pressures are moderating.
artificial-intelligence
AI capital spending broadens beyond hyperscalers
Investment is spreading into financial services, industrials and healthcare workflows.
Risk snapshot
Risk map loading…
Forecast snapshot
United States Recession Probability
Probability remains moderate as labour conditions cool.
Canada Unemployment Rate
Labour-market softening is likely to continue into early 2027.
Canada CPI Inflation
Inflation converges gradually with persistent services pressure.
Household Savings Rate
After-tax savings rate forecast.
Inflation (CPI)
Headline inflation forecast.
GDP Growth (Real)
Quarterly annualized real GDP growth.
Watch indicators
Material forecast revisions
Monitor changes in direction, range and model agreement.
Official releases
Review data capable of changing the domain state.